As we were writing in our previous post, the future of the post-Kyoto agreement is seriously endangered. Yesterday, during an Asia-Pacific summit in Singapore, the US president Barack Obama and country leaders from China, Japan, Russia, Mexico, Australia and Indonesia agreed to delay a climate agreement to 2010 or even later. This means that there will not be the Copenhagen Protocol with reduction targets set for all countries with huge emissions. So maybe it is better to make hawajskie party

According to Danish Prime Minister Lars Rasmussen, the failure of COP15 is sealed. He foresees that there will be a political agreement to continue climate change efforts only, but concrete figures may come on the UN summit next year. Some pessimists say that countries will not be able to set a deal before 2012, when the Kyoto Protocol expires.

The European Union see the US as the main cause of the problem. The climate bid is still not signed by the US Congress. This situation has a strong impact on other big emitters, such as China, India or Brazil, and determines their access to global climate change battle on the US decision. The EU also will not rise its greenhouse gases reduction target from 20% to 30% because of lack of support in global efforts from other countries. The other subject of the Copenhagen talks – finance aid to developing countries – may also be lost due to discord within the EU regarding costs distribution between European countries.

Only Ivo de Boer, the UNFCCC Executive Secretary, seems to be still focused on the final result, saying that “Copenhagen can and must deliver clarity on emission reductions and the finance to kickstart action.”  We will see soon whether the world really “can”.

Regards,

Gustaw

The UNFCCC Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) published documents which are to help parties prepare to the meeting of UNFCCC in Barcelona (which is being held at the beginning of the November) and facilitate the work on new international agreement on climate change.

One of the most interesting paper that was presented is that which indicates the proposition of several developing countries for individual reduction targets for Annex I countries of UNFCCC (the document is available here).

All the documents can be found on the UNFCCC website.

However below we show also very interesting table presenting the official reduction commitments from Annex I countries which were already published in different formal plans and statements.

Regards,
Anthony

The weekly informal negotiations of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Bonn (Germany) regarding the future post-Kyoto agreement ended on Friday 14th of August 2009. Taking into consideration that participants didn’t reach a considerable progress during this meeting more fears come up among experts and observers that new international agreement related to climate changes will not be signed in December in Copenhagen.

What is important the Chief of UNFCCC, Yvo de Boer, said during the press conference at the end of the Bonn meeting that “if we work in such pace we won’t be able to reach an agreement”.

He highlighted that there are 15 days of negotiations left before the meeting in capital of Denmark i.e. meeting in Bankok in September and in Barcelona in November.

Jonathan Pershing, negotiator from United States was also disappointed of the results during Bonn informal meeting saying that without compromise the ambitious agreement will be impossible.

Some of the attendees expressed their opinion that in December the negotiations will conduct to sign an general agreement but without any significant reduction targets and important commitments and detailed measures regarding the fight against climate changes.

During the consecutive meeting in Bonn participants worked on shortening the negotiation text (we wrote about it in June). However the document has still more than 200 pages.

The next official UNFCCC meeting will be held in Bankok which starts on the 28th of September.

Regards,
Anthony

According to results presented by Australian Department of Climate Change emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) rose by 1,1% in 2008 compared to year 2007. However this increase is not influencing on the target from Kyoto Protocol (it is 8% increase in GHG emissions, yes increase, in period 2008-2012 comparing with 1990 levels). Australia is on good road to meet it although in case that the government will implement climate measure that will help to mitigate this rise in coming years.

Personally I’m not afraid about little rise in GHG emissions in Australia in 2008 (however they are 7% above the levels from 1990, and they have ‘track-record’ of average 1,5% increase in three consecutive years). This statement ‘is backed’, in my opinion, by intensive activities and declarations of Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to implement an emission trading scheme in his country starting from 2011. Preliminary plans informed about 2010, but Australian government would like to wait amongst others for outcomes of December’s Conference of the Parties in Copenhagen. Kevin Rudd said even that if developed countries show some ambitious commitments there he would opt for more rigorous targets in emission scheme (even 25% in 2020 below 2000 levels, now the draft project includes 5 to 15% target).

I hope that the increases in GHG emissions are an ‘accident’ and the future will come with some spectacular reductions in Australia regarding this aspect.

It is important as Australia ratified the Kyoto Protocol very late (in December 2007, during Conference of the Parties in Bali) and they need to show their efforts in fight against global warming.

Regards,
Anthony

The beginning of June brings an important (maybe still not crucial) meeting of UNFCCC parties – working groups that will focus mainly on the negotiation documents presented by UNFCCC in May 2009. In this short article I would like just to indicate the main purpose of the two documents regarding Kyoto Protocol and related aspects. The basic document (outlining the new structure of convention) was presented in a previous article – UNFCCC negotiating texts.

No doubt…new Protocol, replacing the Kyoto Protocol (Copenhagen Protocol?) is the most problematic aspect both for developed and developing countries embraced within the UNFCCC. However some basic commitments should be agreed before going to the details which I assume are the national reduction targets in new Protocol. The basic commitments were presented in the main negotiation document (the draft version) that was already mentioned.

The negotiating text concerning the post-Kyoto agreement shows many options presenting variants of reduction targets for countries from the Annex B countries in present Protocol and also some baselines, very important as many post-communist countries received too ‘generous years’ within they should reduce their emissions. This situation impilcates often huge amount of AAU (assigned units) that can be sold by these countries (as their meet their reduction targets well beyond) to the countries that are below their targets.

For more details regarding the proposed targets and baselines I suggest visiting the official UNFCCC website.

Please consider that it’s just an negotiating paper.

Other document that will be discussed in Bonn, from 1st to 12th June, is referring to amongst others flexible mechanisms as JI (Joint Implementation) and CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) and also to emission trading, land use and forestry.

For me the most interesting proposition is to include nuclear energy to CDM projects. It will be definitely a very controversial solution and will be broadly discussed. Other ‘eye catching’ point is to include CCS (carbon capture and storage technology) also under the Clean Development Mechanism.

We will see what the Bonn meeting will bring.

Regards,
Anthony

Today we have an international Children’s day, but additionally on 1st of June 2009 the second UNFCCC meeting starts in Bonn. Will this 12-day event bring any progress for global agreement that should be signed in Copenhagen in December 2009? It depends.

The first UNFCCC meeting was held on 28th March – 8th April and it generally brought a nice atmosphere among parties but nothing new to the negotiations and future results.

Now the situation is different. The UNFCCC published in May 3 documents. One regarding the general approach to the UNFCCC itself and two others related to Kyoto Protocol and among others Kyoto’s flexible mechanisms. It is important to say that this documents were prepared by two separate ad-hoc groups and they will be discussed during the Bonn meeting in June.

However I will focus on the general negotiating text regarding “long-term cooperative action under the convention”.

The purpose of 53-pages negotiation document is to develop measures how governments should conduct an long-term cooperation and commitments to fight climate changes. In addition, it also shows propositions concerning the adaptation and mitigation actions. This document is perceived as a background and basis for the future global agreement decided in December which should also include the Post-Kyoto Protocol.

It should be highlighted that all documents have many gaps and proposition as parties need to discuss and negotiate what should be chosen. So they don’t implicate strict and “one-way” goals and decisions.

The general document suggests some methodologies to establish an overall reduction target for UNFCCC countries. There are some propositions to implement it, amongst others basing on the level of CO2 in the atmosphere, mitigating the average global temperature or reducing the greenhouse gases emissions per capita. The text also presents some preliminary reduction targets for developed countries ranging from “at least 25%” to even “at lest 45%” to 2020 below 1990 levels. The developing countries target ranges from 15% do 30% to 2020 below “business-as-usual” scenario.

The documents suggests also some financing options to support mitigation, adaption and clean technology development activities amongst others spending 0,5-2% of GDP of developed countries or introducing a CO2 tax of 2 $ per tonne.

I hope that Bonn talks will bring some details to this document and that parties will be able to decide on some options and that we will be closer to reach an post-2012 new convention.

Most probably UNFCCC parties will meet for the 3rd time in August. Maybe then all the documents (together with this regarding Kyoto Protocol) will have less options but more coherent solutions. It will definitely help to decide on them (or not) in December.

Regards,
Anthony